Can Italy really avoid a second lockdown?

As the contagion curve continues to rise in Italy, the government insists it does not want to impose another blockade. But is it becoming inevitable? And how could a new block be?

Italy's two-month spring lockdown was one of the longest and most severe in Europe, although health experts have credited it with keeping the epidemic in check and leaving Italy behind the curve as the cases have increased again in neighboring countries.

As France and Germany impose new lockdowns this week, there is widespread speculation that Italy may soon be forced to follow suit.

But with Italian national and regional politicians now reluctant to apply harsh measures, the plan for the coming days and weeks remains unclear.

So far, ministers have taken a softer approach to the new restrictions which they hope will be less damaging from an economic point of view.

The government gradually tightened measures in October, issuing a series of three emergency decrees within two weeks.

Under the latest rules announced on Sunday, gyms and cinemas have been closed nationwide and bars and restaurants must close by 18pm.

But the current restrictions have divided Italy, with opposition politicians and business leaders claiming closures and local curfews are economically punitive but won't make enough difference to the contagion curve.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said the government would not resort to further restrictions before seeing what kind of impact the current rules are having.

However, the increase in the number of cases could force him to introduce further restrictions sooner.

“We are meeting experts and evaluating whether to intervene again,” Conte told the Foglio on Saturday.

Italy reported 31.084 new cases of the virus on Friday, breaking another daily record.

Conte this week announced a further five billion euro financial aid package for businesses hit by the latest round of closures, but there are concerns about how the country would afford to support more businesses if hit by wider restrictions.

Even regional authorities have so far been reluctant to implement localized blockades recommended by health experts.

But as the situation in Italy worsens, government health advisors now say some form of blockade is becoming a real possibility.

"All possible measures are being studied," Agostino Miozzo, coordinator of the Government's Scientific Technical Committee (CTS), said in an interview on Italian radio on Friday.

“Today we entered scenario 3, there is also scenario 4,” he said, referring to the risk categories outlined in the government's emergency planning documents.

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"With this, various blocking hypotheses are foreseen - general, partial, localized or as we saw in March".

“We had hoped not to get here. But if we look at the countries next to us, unfortunately these are realistic assumptions, ”he said.

What could happen next?

A new block could take various forms depending on the risk scenarios detailed in the “Prevention and response to Covid-19” plans drawn up by the Italian Institute of Health (ISS).

The situation in Italy currently corresponds to that described in "scenario 3", which according to the ISS is characterized by "sustained and widespread transmissibility" of the virus with "risks of maintaining the health system in the medium term" and Rt values ​​at regional level, including level between 1,25 and 1,5.

If Italy enters “scenario 4” - the last and most serious foreseen by the ISS plan - it is then that tougher measures such as blockades should be considered.

In scenario 4 "the regional Rt numbers are predominantly and significantly greater than 1,5" and this scenario "could quickly lead to a high number of cases and clear signs of overload of welfare services, without the possibility of tracing the origin of new cases. "

In this case, the official plan calls for the adoption of "very aggressive measures", including a national blockade like the one seen in the spring if deemed necessary.

French block?

The Italian media report that any new bloc would be different from the previous one, as Italy appears to be adopting "French" rules this time with Italy, like France, determined to protect the economy.

France entered the second bloc on Friday, with the country registering around 30.000 new cases per day according to national data.

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In this scenario, schools would remain open, as would some workplaces including factories, farms and public offices, writes the financial newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore, while other companies would be required to allow remote work where possible.

Could Italy avoid this scenario?

For now, the authorities are betting that the current measures are enough to start flattening the contagion curve, thus avoiding the need to implement stringent blocking measures

"The hope is that we can begin to see a slight decline in new positives in a week," Dr. Vincenzo Marinari, physicist at the La Sapienza University of Rome, told Ansa. "The first results could start showing in four or five days."

The next few days "will be crucial in terms of trying to implement the rules decided by the government," he said.

However, some experts say it is already too late.

The measures applied under the current emergency decree are "insufficient and belated," the president of the Italian foundation for evidence-based medicine Gimbe said Thursday in a report.

"The epidemic is out of control, without immediate local closures it will take a month of national blockade," said Dr. Nino Cartabellotta.

All eyes will be on the daily infection rate as Conte is expected to announce plans for new measures by the middle of next week, according to Italian media reports.

On Wednesday 4 November, Conte addresses Parliament on the measures in place to deal with the pandemic and the consequent economic crisis.

Any new measures announced could be voted on immediately and activated as early as the following weekend.